KSPM
Search
- Page Path
- HOME > Search
Original Articles
- Projection of Cancer Incidence and Mortality From 2020 to 2035 in the Korean Population Aged 20 Years and Older
- Youjin Hong, Sangjun Lee, Sungji Moon, Soseul Sung, Woojin Lim, Kyungsik Kim, Seokyung An, Jeoungbin Choi, Kwang-Pil Ko, Inah Kim, Jung Eun Lee, Sue K. Park
- J Prev Med Public Health. 2022;55(6):529-538. Published online October 17, 2022
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.22.128
- 3,132 View
- 178 Download
- 1 Crossref
-
Abstract
Summary
PDF
Supplementary Material - Objectives
This study aimed to identify the current patterns of cancer incidence and estimate the projected cancer incidence and mortality between 2020 and 2035 in Korea.
Methods
Data on cancer incidence cases were extracted from the Korean Statistical Information Service from 2000 to 2017, and data on cancer-related deaths were extracted from the National Cancer Center from 2000 to 2018. Cancer cases and deaths were classified according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th edition. For the current patterns of cancer incidence, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) and age-standardized mortality rates were investigated using the 2000 mid-year estimated population aged over 20 years and older. A joinpoint regression model was used to determine the 2020 to 2035 trends in cancer.
Results
Overall, cancer cases were predicted to increase from 265 299 in 2020 to 474 085 in 2035 (growth rate: 1.8%). The greatest increase in the ASIR was projected for prostate cancer among male (7.84 vs. 189.53 per 100 000 people) and breast cancer among female (34.17 vs. 238.45 per 100 000 people) from 2000 to 2035. Overall cancer deaths were projected to increase from 81 717 in 2020 to 95 845 in 2035 (average annual growth rate: 1.2%). Although most cancer mortality rates were projected to decrease, those of breast, pancreatic, and ovarian cancer among female were projected to increase until 2035.
Conclusions
These up-to-date projections of cancer incidence and mortality in the Korean population may be a significant resource for implementing cancer-related regulations or developing cancer treatments. -
SummaryKorean summary
최근 고령화 시대로 접어들고 암의 위험요인들에 대한 노출률이 변화함에 따라 암의 발생률 및 사망률에 대해서 관찰하는 것은 중요한 일이 되었다. 따라서, 본 연구는 한국인에서 2035년까지의 암에 대한 발생률과 사망률을 Joinpoint regression 모델을 이용하여 예측하였다. 남성에서는 전립선암, 여성에서는 유방암이 연령표준화 발생률이 가장 높았으며 대부분의 연령표준화 사망률은 감소하는 것으로 예상되지만 여성의 유방암, 췌장암, 난소암이 증가될 것으로 예상된다. -
Citations
Citations to this article as recorded by
- Changes in metabolic syndrome and the risk of breast and endometrial cancer according to menopause in Korean women
Thi Xuan Mai Tran, Soyeoun Kim, Boyoung Park
Epidemiology and Health.2023; 45: e2023049. CrossRef
- Changes in metabolic syndrome and the risk of breast and endometrial cancer according to menopause in Korean women
- The Korea Cohort Consortium: The Future of Pooling Cohort Studies
- Sangjun Lee, Kwang-Pil Ko, Jung Eun Lee, Inah Kim, Sun Ha Jee, Aesun Shin, Sun-Seog Kweon, Min-Ho Shin, Sangmin Park, Seungho Ryu, Sun Young Yang, Seung Ho Choi, Jeongseon Kim, Sang-Wook Yi, Daehee Kang, Keun-Young Yoo, Sue K. Park
- J Prev Med Public Health. 2022;55(5):464-474. Published online September 12, 2022
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.22.299
- 3,044 View
- 116 Download
- 1 Web of Science
- 1 Crossref
-
Abstract
Summary
PDFSupplementary Material
- Objectives
We introduced the cohort studies included in the Korea Cohort Consortium (KCC), focusing on large-scale cohort studies established in Korea with a prolonged follow-up period. Moreover, we also provided projections of the follow-up and estimates of the sample size that would be necessary for big-data analyses based on pooling established cohort studies, including population-based genomic studies.
Methods
We mainly focused on the characteristics of individual cohort studies from the KCC. We developed “PROFAN”, a Shiny application for projecting the follow-up period to achieve a certain number of cases when pooling established cohort studies. As examples, we projected the follow-up periods for 5000 cases of gastric cancer, 2500 cases of prostate and breast cancer, and 500 cases of non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The sample sizes for sequencing-based analyses based on a 1:1 case-control study were also calculated.
Results
The KCC consisted of 8 individual cohort studies, of which 3 were community-based and 5 were health screening-based cohorts. The population-based cohort studies were mainly organized by Korean government agencies and research institutes. The projected follow-up period was at least 10 years to achieve 5000 cases based on a cohort of 0.5 million participants. The mean of the minimum to maximum sample sizes for performing sequencing analyses was 5917-72 102.
Conclusions
We propose an approach to establish a large-scale consortium based on the standardization and harmonization of existing cohort studies to obtain adequate statistical power with a sufficient sample size to analyze high-risk groups or rare cancer subtypes. -
SummaryKorean summary
한국 코호트 컨소시엄(KCC)은 “2015년 한국의 생활 습관 및 환경 요인에 따른 암 기여분율” 프로젝트의 3단계 과업으로써, 본 프로젝트에 참여한 기존의 구축된 개인 코호트 연구의 연구자들을 주도로 다수의 대규모 한국 코호트 연구를 기반으로 구성되었다. 따라서 본 연구는 KCC에 포함된 한국 코호트 연구를 소개하는 것을 목표로 하였다. 또한 여러 기 확립된 국제 컨소시엄을 기반으로 빅데이터 기반 코호트 풀링 연구의 중요성을 제시하였다. -
Citations
Citations to this article as recorded by- The relationship between regional inequalities in the provision of emergency health services and other health services
Erkan Boğa
Medicine.2023; 102(45): e35930. CrossRef
- The relationship between regional inequalities in the provision of emergency health services and other health services
First
Prev
